Nick Murphy Crime in Guat and Can

Nicholas Murphy Blog 2
El articulo Inseguridad agobia a guatemaltecos, escrito por Alberto G. Luna, reveló que la mayoridad de guatemaltecos tienen miedo de ser víctimas de los delitos. 48 por ciento tienen medio extremo, y 22 por ciento el temo medio. En un país donde hay más de 5000 homicidios por el ano, esas cifras no son sorprendentes. Lo que es inquietante es que 28 por ciento de guatemaltecos tienen miedo regularmente, y también que 36 por ciento tienen miedo de vuelvan a casa después de trabajar. Al otro lado, una investigación en Canada reveló que solo 31 por ciento de la población tienen miedo de ser victimizado por los delincuentes. Esas cifres demuestran la enorme diferencia entre esos países.
The Canadian study Fear of Crime and Attitudes Towards Criminal Justice in Canada, found that most Canadians feel relatively safe in their communities. However, women are much more likely to be afraid of victimization than men (41% vs. 12%), and that fear varies geographically. For example, only 14 percent of the population in the eastern provinces live in fear, while 39 percent in British Columbia live in fear. I speculate that much of this variation has much to do with public perception of crime as reported in the media, because the difference in the amount of criminal activity is not enough to account for the difference in fear levels. The study was scientific, involving qualitative and quantitative research (i.e. telephone interviews and random polling), and was obviously country-wide. However, the study did not specify what sort of crimes people report being afraid of: violent crime or just pickpocketing? So we cannot be sure just what level of fear we are talking about in the respondents.
The Guatemalan study was less scientific. Only 500 people were polled, and there is no mention of whether or not the respondents come from different parts of the country. But however off the percentages are, if it is true that anywhere close to 36 percent of people are afraid every time they leave their homes then we are looking at a tormented population. According to Mario Polanco, from the group Apoyo Mutuo, suggests that part of the problem is that criminals are becoming increasingly violent in response to the perceived weakness of the government. If there is no progress in fighting crime, there can be no public trust in society. This increasingly violence compounds the negative image of society encouraged by the local media, which regularly features stories on vicious crime.
Bracketing the question of just how similar the kinds of fear exposed are between the Canadian and Guatemalan studies, let us compare and contrast. In Guatemala, we have roughly 70 percent of the population living in fear, be it extreme or moderate. In Canada, we have 31 percent. Guatemala has about 5000 murder per year, while Canada has under a thousand. (However, keep in mind that Guatemala’s population is less than half that of Canada’s). So we can see from this statistic that things are drastically different in the two countries. What is interesting is that - if the cultures were in any way comparable - it would seem that the fear levels in Guatemala are actually surprisingly low. Either that or Canada’s fear levels are unwarranted. So I do not think one could draw a graph that shows the relation between levels of violent crime and fear levels.
So what are the implications of a country like Guatemala with a population living in fear? We can only speculate. But the high number of people who fear even a daily commute hints at what might be a deeper problem: how can an economy be expected to develop in an atmosphere of terror? If the risk of victimization is perceived to be high enough, then economic growth will be seriously hindered for the simple reason that people cannot live with that level of stress; they will not put their lives at risk for their jobs in most cases. In Canada, the concerns are not that acute, but if 70 percent of the Guatemalan population lives in constant fear of criminal attack, we are looking at an incredibly overwhelming problem. And even more disconcerting is the perception of the Guatemalan government that the root of the problem lies in its inability to adequately punish criminal activity. No doubt punishment is an important part of the justice system, but the impression I got from the article is that this is understood to be the main problem. In fact, the problem is structural, and has its foundation in the social problems associated with poverty. If the government focuses solely on punishment, it can only perpetuate the atmosphere of danger. It remains to be seen if Guatemala can slow the growth in crime rates, but I hope we can all agree incarcerating every law-breaker will not solve the problem of rampant crime.
As we have seen in the disproportionate level of fear of victimization felt by Canadians, fear is not always proportional to actual crime levels. However, I believe Guatemalans actually are justified in their concern for their safety. But I propose that it could only ameliorate conditions if the media took its focus off reporting crime, because this would at least create the perception that Guatemala is not some sort of lawless warzone. Although there is some truth to such an idea, it is as least arguable that promoting that idea can only make the situation worse. If Guatemala is to achieve any economic growth, people need to feel safer. I am not suggesting legitimate safety concerns not be made public, only that the media be encouraged to focus on other elements of Guatemalan than its violence. Perhaps that would change the level of public fear and promote a more vibrant growth economy.